The inspiration for today's Internet comes from DARPA research networks started in the 1960s as an information architecture designed to withstand major nuclear attacks. The communications network, designed at the height of the cold war, is decentralized and relies on the TCP-IP protocol that helps assure that no one choke point exists. However, the architecture also never envisioned the networks as a public commodity and as such security was not focused on internal threats.

For over a decade now, computer security experts have warned that the American cyberinfrastucture faces a potential electronic "pearl harbor." There are any number of plausible scenarios that could lead to a major malicious network disruption.

The Hacker Threat
As the infrastructure of the Internet has become more of a commodity there has been a proliferation of knowledge about network vulnerabilities. Most of the major security holes found were identified by so called "white hat" hackers who inform others before they publicize their findings. However, as the recent DNS vulnerability and subsequent short term disruption reveal, even these efforts can have negative impact on our networks. Apart from malicious attempts, pseudo-malicious experiments with viruses (Code Red) have shown that destructive software can quickly have network impact beyond intended scope.

The Nation State Threat
Military attacks on infrastructure are not new, but an increased focus on disrupting the primarily civilian Internet has occurred within the past five years. From the proposed creation of the US Cyber Command to focused efforts within China to develop "cyber first strike" plans military doctrines are embracing cyberwar. International norms have also not been established yet which make cyber-strikes a type of "grey" area within diplomacy. Perhaps cyber-strikes will be used as "shots across the bow" when major nation states wish to pressure others into submission. It is quite likely that within the next five years we may see an issue brought before the UN Security Council that deals not with physical but cyber aggression.

These two threats are but a few which can be reasonably articulated that would result in major disruption to America's cyberinfrastructure. The probability is that there will be a major event that will lead to calls for increased regulation, control, and focus on security and identity.