Even before the current world food crises, China has been suffering from record inflation. A spike in pork and other food prices pushed inflation to a 12 year peak of 8.7%, with food price inflation accounting for approximately 85% of overall inflation. In the short term, the nation remains financially insulated and maintains sufficient grain reserves of about 150 to 200 million tons.

In the long run, however, China’s agriculture is vulnerable to labor shortages and loss of farmland. After reaching a peak of over 500 million tons in the mid 1990s, grain production has steadily declined. Several agencies have repeated warnings that China cannot afford to dip below 120 million hectors of farmland and currently stands at the brink with only 122 million.

One major problem is the aging of the nation’s farmers and their lack of training in new technologies. According to a nationwide survey conducted by the Ministry of Agriculture from 2004 to 2006, the average age of farmers had surpassed 50 as younger workers continue to flock to cities.

In response, the government aims to make-up for labor shortages by promoting the use of new strains of hybrid rice and high-yield wheat. For example, Zhang Qifa at the Chinese Academy of Sciences recently published his findings in Nature Genetics on cloned Ghd7, an important regulator in rice for both heading and yield. His team isolated Ghd7 from a high yield hybrid rice and encoded a CCT domain protein that has a major effect on a variety of traits including grains per panicle, plant height, heading date, and geographic adaptability. Tests resulted in crop increases by up to 50%.

Such research, unfortunately, is not likely to have any impact on China’s agricultural production in the near future. In March, 2006, the Ministry of Agriculture announced an initiative to train farmers in new technologies and assist with their scientific literacy. Although the government in 2007 invested 1.1 billion yuan into the program, many have complained that it is too little too late and that the program’s implementation faces challenges in reaching farmers as well as in corruption.